2025 – END GAME CHINA – WAR A CERTAINTY – PART 2

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HOW TO DEAL WITH A TYRANT

The war with China is a certainty. Whether it would be with India or any other country in the South China Sea, only time would tell. However, since the initiative has been taken by China, India should not disappoint them, else they would keep coming back like a chronic disease(and China is well known for spreading diseases).

To deal with China we will consider these three principles of German-Austrian politician and statesman, Prince Klemens Wenzel von Metternich

Prince Klemens Wenzel von Metternich: Courtesy Wikimedia
  • Compromise is the easy refuge of irresolute or unprincipled men. A nation’s survival is not a matter of compromise. 
  • Weaker states can ill-afford merely to react to events; they must also try to initiate them. 
  • We must rely for the execution of our plans on ourselves alone and on such means as we possess.

Keeping the above principles in mind the war should be fought by India and India alone, without compromising, and with a doxastic commitment on two fronts:

  • Non-Military
  • Military

NON-MILITARY FRONT

Non-military fronts would primarily be ’Economic War’, and it should start immediately. China takes excessive pride in its economic achievements(forgetting that most of it was due to the extraordinary interest shown by the United States). The Communist Party of China’s(CPC) hold over its populace is through its economic might. If that economic might disappears CPC would be toothless. So hit where it hurts the most. The Economic War would be assisted by these three components:

  • Asymmetric War: Asymmetric warfare consist of nuclear, chemical, biological, economical, information operations, operational concepts, terrorism, etc. However, India should consider only 
    • Disinformation and Propaganda 
    • Disruption of Chinese Operations
    • Psychological war
  • Technological and Biological War 
  • Diplomatic War

ECONOMIC WARFARE

In the late 19th century East India Company supplied slow poison, opium to China to secure Hong Kong. Ten million Indian farmers were stuck in the production of high-quality opium. The price peasants received for their opium did not even cover the cost of growing it. Two centuries later in the role reversal Chinese have put Indians on the slow poison of cheap imports. It is understandable that they supply India with high-tech machinery and components, however, they also supply India with fertilizers, humidifiers, medical masks, liquid soaps, toothpicks, God statues, etc, which could be easily produced in India. In the last three decades, Indian manufacturers have become traders. Planners and leaders remained in policy paralysis, while China kept eating into India’s manufacturing base. China’s posturing in Ladakh should be seen as, a blessing in disguise, which has pulled India out of its slumber, and complacency.

’Metternich’ states that a weaker state should take initiative rather than react to a stronger state. Economically and militarily, China has an edge over India. Therefore India should take initiative, make a list of punitive actions, that hurt the Chinese economy and limit the damage to the Indian economy. Following shortcomings of China can be exploited:

  • More than 100 Chinese firms have a presence in India. 
  • Chinese SOEs(State-Owned Enterprises) have bagged huge projects in India. The CPC gets it’s power from these SOEs. The SOEs should be thoroughly investigated, harassed, and eventually disallowed on security grounds. 
  • The Chinese economy’s dependence on exports was 19.5% of GDP in 2018. That is a huge percentage to harass China.
  • The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) has finalized a list of 3,000 products that can easily be made in India, reducing the Chinese imports by $13 billion, by December 2021. However, 30% of Indian imports are low tech products. India should develop a strategy to produce these products within the country.
  • India underutilizes it’s Steel, Electronics, and Chemical industry. These can also be ramped up with a roadmap for the next 5-10 years. 
  • China has a  Foreign Investment Negative List which has 13 sectors, and foreign companies have restricted entry in there. Compared to this India has a limited list. India seriously needs to have a relook at this list.
  • The Bureau of Indian Standards is finalizing tougher norms for at least 370 products to ensure items that can be locally produced and not imported. The products include chemicals, steel, electronics, heavy machinery, furniture, paper, industrial machinery, rubber articles, glass, metal articles, pharma, fertilizer, and plastic toys.
Courtesy: howmuch.net

DISINFORMATION, PROPAGANDA AND DISRUPTION

Before we go into details of how we should deal with China. The following are a few graphs showing that China has much more to lose than India in this relationship gone sour. They also indicate that there are forces within India and in the western countries who are pushing the Chinese agenda through Propaganda and disinformation, depicting China as a powerful, just, and indispensable nation, which has a major role in the progressive world. 

Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg

It is evidently clear that India can do without China. It would take some time, but that future looks better and safe. In addition to creating an economic roadmap within the country, India should start hurting the Chinese economy worldwide. Disinformation and Propaganda are the finest tools to spread fear and confusion in the enemy camp, be it military personnel or civilians. China has created a homegrown internet environment, where nothing enters from the outside world. The important component of this surveillance state is (details at- https://insightful.co.in/2019/01/24/chinese-information-warfare-a-threat-to-free-world):

  • Great Firewall of China
  • Great Cannon
  • Golden Shield

The disinformation or the actual information can be passed in the following ways:

  • Going past the above-mentioned impediments and corrupting the Chinese databases. Thereafter, flooding the Chinese Social Media with (dis)information against CPC and its wrongdoings. 
  • The target audience for the propaganda in China should be the middle class. The deepest threat to the regime’s stability will come from them. 
  • Connecting directly with Chinese tourists & businessmen – 170 million travel annually.
  • Indoctrinate Chinese Students – 700,000 studying in foreign universities.
  • Overseas Chinese – Over 1 million Chinese reside in Africa alone, mostly conducting businesses and working on Chinese projects. Propaganda against them would adversely affect businesses and projects. Propaganda against CPC, would be carried by them when they visit home(Chinese workers are very scared in Pakistan. They have been targeted by the Taliban and BLA freedom fighters from time to time).
  • Major Importing Countries – Countries in North and Central America, Western Europe, South East Asia, and Australia should be flooded with information and propaganda against
    • Chinese government, Chinese companies and corporations through social, print, and electronic media.
    • Atrocities on Tibetans, Uighurs, Hong Kongers, and Christian missionaries.
    • Environmental damage due to Chinese practices.
    • Intellectual Property(IP) Theft.
    • Aggression in the West Philippines Sea(erstwhile South China Sea).
    • Terrorism in Myanmar and Indian states of J&K, Assam and Nagaland.
    • Missile and nuclear proliferation.
    • Threat of Xi Jinping’s ’Chinese Dream’ of a return to global greatness.
  • India and other free world countries should spread information/disinformation in the Chinese mainland with the help of willing nations(TV and radio stations dedicated to China in those countries). This would give rise to unrest, demonstrations and uprising in China. Topic should be: 
    • End of cheap Chinese labor
    • Economic slowdown
    • High unemployment due to jobs shifting to India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia 
    • Poorly planned government investment decisions
    • Poor execution of schemes, locally and internationally 
    • Aging population
    • Rising health costs
    • Compare Xi Jinping’s OBOR to Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward

END OF CHINESE ECONOMIC HOME RUN

Alexis de Tocqueville

19th-century French political scientist Alexis de Tocqueville’s ’The Old Regime’, and the ’French Revolution’ are very popular books amongst Chinese leaders. ’The Tocqueville Paradox’ observes: ”the reforms that a weakened dictatorship pursues have a tendency to trigger a revolution that eventually topples the reformist dictatorship itself”. During the long period of competition of the Cold War, the rigidity of the Soviet Union and its leaders became the most valuable tool for the United States. The Kremlin continued with its failed strategies, clinging to a waning economic system, continuing a disastrous arms race, and retaining an unaffordable global empire, rather than acknowledge the losses. Xi Jinping’s regime is similarly restrained by the rigidities of their own system and therefore limited in their ability to correct policy mistakes. Xi’s empire is also spreading wide and thin, weakening the core thought process of Deng Xiaoping. Xi knows that as societies become complex with more and more cutting edge sophistication in them, and more and more specialization, they become increasingly vulnerable to collapse. That is the reason Xi would have policy paralysis and no option but to become more rigid. He has reversed Deng’s political reforms that separated the party and the state. Xi Jinping’s dictatorship is staring at ’The Tocqueville Paradox’. The damage to Xi’s authority caused by further missteps would also embolden his rivals, especially Premier Li Keqiang and the Politburo members Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua. It would be interesting to note, what brings down Xi first, external or internal forces. 

Originally Published At: https://insightful.co.in/2020/07/05/2025-end-game-china-war-a-certainty-part-2

76 thoughts on “2025 – END GAME CHINA – WAR A CERTAINTY – PART 2

  1. While Metternich definitely influenced, perhaps even named the Age he lived in, don’t support his premises at all. A nation’s survival depends most assuredly upon that nation not falling into anarchy and chaos. The civil protests both within France and America today express both anarchy and chaos. Brexit has likewise fomented instability within the EU union.

    Metternich, being a ‘foreign minister’ made foreign policy his focus. Not wise to confuse a public servant for the Head of State. Domestic issues and policies, pardon my pun, Trump foreign policy issues. Foreign issues must always play second fiddle to managing and/or resolving domestic internal disputes. A person loves another when he prioritizes the needs of his beloved above even his own interests. Needs does not equal wants. In the Wilderness, Moshe the prophet, continually had to discern between meeting the needs of the nation as opposed to pampering their wants.

    For 7 days during the Chag of P’sach, Yidden remove and do not benefit from any leavened object of food. The salvation from slavery requires that leaders separate between the needs and wants of the People. The Common folk do not easily rebel against the establishment when Government rules by supplying the folk with their basic needs. A policeman standing upon the neck of an arrested black man for 9 minutes – clearly violates this basic distinction.

    The language “weaker states” conceals Great power imperialism. Muhammad Ali (not the boxer) lead the Egyptian revolt against the Pasha of the “sick man of Europe”, in the 1830s. England favored an unstable Ottoman empire. But when Ali conquered Syria, which included Balestine, English gun boat diplomacy forced Ali into a ‘land for peace’ deal. England would later divide the spoils of the Ottoman empire between itself and France. But long before that, the Crown gobbled up Egypt into the stomach of the British empire.

    Foreign Policy stands upon the foundation of deception. The language “weaker powers”, a classic deception. His 3rd principle reflect the defeat of Napoleon and the redrawing of the map of European nation states. These notions the 1848 revolutions expunged them upon the dung heaps of history, where they rot unto this very day.

    Nation states can no more fight a nuclear war today than could the US and USSR in the 1950s. Radiation does not discern between the borders of one nation from another. If one nation pollutes another nation with strong radiation – that’s an act of war. War represents an absolute disaster in national leadership. Europe today exists as 2nd and 3rd rate powers due to fighting 2 Civil Wars in the 20th Century. Europe surrendered and dismantled their huge empires due to their weakened nation state status.

    President Trump employed the threat of trade embargoes to slap the face of the EU and Chinese trade deficits. If the products of a foreign nation, sell at a cheaper price and have higher quality, its only natural that foreign countries will desire these products. Tariffs and embargoes serve as the means by which Home Governments protect their local industries. The nation with the superior goods my complain, but the leaders know on which side of the bread they butter. If a man judges a fight between two boxers and one of these boxers – the son of the judge…

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Later scholars who examine the leadership policies of earlier generations, as a rule must view their opinions within the contexts of the times in which they lived. Metternich, his policy: international allies made by weaker states to counter balance the power possessed by a Great State. The post Napoleonic British policy of “maintaining a balance of power in Europe”, the British they existed as Metternich’s point of reference. Post Napoleon, Britain and Russia emerged as the Great Powers. But England – the leader of the Industrial Revolution – soon eclipsed the Czarist Russian Bear.

    The 1848 revolutions swept Metternich balance of power upon the dung heaps of history. There after the Marx vs. Anarchism models dominated Russian politics as expressed through the Bolshevik/Menshevik/Social Revolutionary/Anarchist peasants party dominated the political ‘talk shows’. Lenin swept the Anarchist/Social Revolutionary side of the debate upon the dung heaps of history.

    Then came the Fascist Civil War which appealed to Hitler. But Stalin swept Hitler’s version of Fascism upon the dung heaps of history. The death of Franco of Spain removed the last trace of Fascism from the planet.

    India hardly compares to the India which lost a border skirmish with China in the early 60s. A lot of Asian powers possess an industrial might that strongly opposes Asia dominated by the Chinese like Britain dominated France following the defeat of Napoleon. Japan, while it has experienced a horrible depression last over 2 decades, its far from happy about the prospects of China dominating all the States in Asia.

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        1. Call it whatever you want but I want to know what you think. Linking to articles written by other authors and offered without any explanation whatsoever seems to me to be both lazy and inconsiderate.

          Liked by 1 person

    1. I want to hear what you have to say on these topics. Please do not link us to the rest of the internet without telling us why it is worth our time. Unlike L2 we are not trained seals here on Unleashed. Thank you for understanding.

      Liked by 2 people

  3. “Indoctrinate Chinese Students – 700,000 studying in foreign universities.”

    Is it really possible to indoctrinate them? Especially considering that anyone from China who is studying abroad is connected by family to the communist party, and even if they don’t sympathize, their families would be in danger if they don’t tow the Chi-com line.

    Many of these students are spies, and they are stealing valuable information: I tend to think that we just stop allowing students from China to attend schools here.

    Thank you for another great post, Sandomina 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Thank you so much, Judy. Sorry for the delay in replying. Spycraft is a matter of patience and taking chances. If one tries out with 700,000 students and even 10 agree, that is a big number. There is no doubt that their families would be in danger, but that goes with all the countries, and people still disown their country and spy for the enemy.

      Liked by 2 people

  4. This is bold and beautiful. India does not need to be alone and the ChiComs are gearing up to make economic warfare on your country as well. India needs to lead a coalition of anti-communist led countries or something – maybe the coalition of anti-predator nations (CAP’ns?). China’s CCP is its center of gravity. There is your focus (for now), I think.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Had a dream that interpreted the k’vanna of the niggun of Hava Nagila.  A powerful mussar walks a narrow line, it does not bounce from subject to subject, rather it clings to a simple idea that arouses the אומץ לב of joy within our hearts, the Will to possess the land.  1948, the declaration of National Independence, Yidden danced the Hava Nagila niggun of the Sadigura Hasidic dynasty that made aliya to Israel on the eve of WW2.

               Written either by Avraham Zevi Idelsohn or Moshe Nathanson, the former made its first recording in 1922.  It’s a simple niggun: Come let us be glad, and rejoice.  Arise brethren with a joyful heart.  Traditionally sung together with blowing the shofar.  This niggun goes together with Shalom aliechem which Yidden traditionally sing to invite the sanctity of shabbot. 

               Prior to the evening first meal, which begins with a blessing pronounced over wine and bread.  The blowing of the shofar together with this niggun – so inspires the heart.  The k’vanna of Hava Nagila – to enliven the heart; to rise up against the Yatzir Ha’Ra and steel our Will, for the coming hard fight, to possess and conquer the land.
               Wheels within Wheels, the spirit of HaShem contained within the wheels.  The vision of the Divine Chariot, from which rabbi Akiva derived his פרדס kabbala sh’itta of Talmudic scholarship.  The circular dance of joy, expressed on Chag Sukkot, focuses upon the liberation from g’lut, rather than the bitter cold night of g’lut.  It recalls the opening war to capture the walled city of Jericho, the opening battle to conquer the land – the reason HaShem brought Israel out of Egyptian slavery.

               Yidden recall through Hava Nagila the courage of king Hezekia, when he stood toe to toe with Sennacherib, the Assyrian king.  Torah victory in war requires HaShem to first judge the Gods whom the Goyim worship.  Tehillem teaches: trust not in the power of the horse.  Israel conquers and takes possession of the land, not through tuma wisdom and military prowess.  Slaves thumbed our noses at Par’o following the P’sach night, when the head and hands of the fallen Egyptian Gods lay shattered upon church and mosque floors.

               Yidden dance forming a circle to arouse the Divine Spirits within us to overcome our dread and fear of giants in the faith of עמנו אל – first HaShem wars against the Gods whom the Goyim worship, only thereafter does Israel rejoice victorious over our enemies – the latter, utterly and totally destroyed.  Another memory dance, Yidden feel exhilaration recalling the vision of destroyed chariots; the obliteration of the army of Par’o, corpses cast upon the shores of the Sea of Suf.  Traditionally Yidden stand in shul when the פסוקי דזמר “blessing” comes to
      אז ישיר משה ובני ישראל את השירה הזאת

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          1. Ah, i see that it could appear that I just scanned the title and responded. A valid observation. Having read the article, previously mentioned Metternich in depth. Therefore I sought to add a comment on the spirit of war.

            Liked by 1 person

          2. Recall you requested that i post my personal opinions and not some article that i read on the subject. It seems that my attempt to obey your command compares to posting the https of some related article.

            Liked by 1 person

          3. “It seems that my attempt to obey your command compares to posting the https of some related article.”

            This is an interesting comment. How so do they compare?

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          4. Awoke this morning with an incredible interpretation of a classic niggun/song. It seemed to me, that if a brewing war exists between China and India, then a good way to determine the issue, measure the emotional pulse rates of both the Indians and Chinese.

            Liked by 1 person

          5. Prior to WW1 Europeans felt tremendous excitement over the prospects of a “short” European war. They thought that such a war would compare to Bismark’s 3 small wars by which he unified the 2nd German empire.

            Liked by 1 person

          6. We are talking past each. I asked how would you measure the emotional pulse rates and you give me something about Bismark. I can’t keep up with your frequency hopping, madam.

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          7. “Prior to WW1 Europeans felt tremendous excitement” Based upon what recent history? The late 19th century 3 small wars by Bismark. Europeans felt tremendous excitement b/c they thought that the coming War of 1914, that it would last less than a year – comparable to Bismark’s 3 wars.

            Now jump to the Sino-Indian war. You asked how to measure the pulse rate of the Chinese and Indians? Simple.

            Do these people of both nations approach the up coming war with joy and pleasure b/c they think it will be a glorious immediate victory.

            Obviously no one gets excited over a long drawn out war that destroys the lives of an entire generation of a people. WW1 did just that to both England, France, and Germany.

            Liked by 1 person

          8. “Do these people of both nations approach the up coming war with joy and pleasure b/c they think it will be a glorious immediate victory.”

            Tell us please.

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          9. Ma’am its a respectful term in Texas. True I left the US back in 1991, and things might have changed, but as far as I know, when a man addresses a woman “ma’am” its a sign of respect.

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          10. Never my intention to hijack your blog. Your topics, so interesting, they fascinate me. I am so sorry if my responses have overshadowed your most excellent blog. Please accept my most sincere apologies. Your blog its wonderful. It arouses my imaginations and hopes.

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          11. Hijacking a blog – this implies that the response made overtake in importance the original presentation. If my responses “hijack” your blog, for this please accept my most sincere apologies.

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          12. Wrong. Your hijacking means talking about shit you want to talk about instead of what everybody else is talking about.

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          13. d’snark? represents a slang which goes over my head. You can see that my English skills have diminished a bit from all my grammatical errors. I see them after having sent a response. It gives me satisfaction to hold discussions with you. Personally in my eyes you possess great beauty of character.

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          14. The dream interpretation of Hava Nagila, that niggun it really strongly motivates persons who hear it. Now how does this relate to your article? Well if the article accurately presents approaching war between Indians and Chinese — then the emotional state of the people of both nations MUST experience strand and radical emotions.

            “” Chinese government, Chinese companies and corporations through social, print, and electronic media.

            Atrocities on Tibetans, Uighurs, Hong Kongers, and Christian missionaries.
            Environmental damage due to Chinese practices.
            Intellectual Property(IP) Theft.
            Aggression in the West Philippines Sea(erstwhile South China Sea).
            Terrorism in Myanmar and Indian states of J&K, Assam and Nagaland.
            Missile and nuclear proliferation.
            Threat of Xi Jinping’s ’Chinese Dream’ of a return to global greatness. “””

            These key talking points strongly imply a ‘disturbance in the force’.

            Liked by 1 person

          15. I do not. If you want to continuously talk about unrelated topics then you should start the conversation about topics you want to discuss.

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          16. OK if you feel that what i write is unrelated i concede. But I thought we had a lengthy conversation and you responded that my comparison – as “spot on”.

            I find it difficult to communicate complex ideas without facial interactions. My Israeli perspective introduces a side of issues that perhaps you have never seen or considered. A blue print of a building offers a front, side, and top views. A person who knows how to read a blue print can see a 3 dimensional idea from a 2 dimensional sheet of paper.

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          17. “…of her friends.”

            Of her friends? I just told you my pronouns were masculine and you give me this.

            Strike two!

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          18. You may want to extract both thumb and head from your anal cavity if you want to continue trolling on ST Unleashed!

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          19. You have two strikes. I do not know whether or not you can remember from your previous life in TX but in baseball three strikes means you are out. Please be warned.

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          20. “Never called you a she after you pointed out my error to which i admitted my mistake and apologized.”

            The Talmud teaches that a person can discern the character of another simply by observing the behavior of her friends. You have very nice friends.

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          21. You refer to me as she after I had pointed out to you that I am male and your response is, “Do the math.”
            You are nothing if not STEM oriented.

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          22. No, I insist you stop referring to me as a female. Why do you do that? Does it make you feel like a real man? Do you think it makes me feel more feminine?

            Like

    2. Thankfully ST, India has the right kind of leadership, and that gives jitters to China. War doesn’t suit India until it is imposed upon us. Therefore, as you pointed out, other means should be used to slay the demon.

      Liked by 2 people

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